SB LIX Thoughts
The Philadelphia Eagles (14-3) vs. the Kansas City Chiefs (15-2) for all the NFL marbles.
To get to SB LIX, the Eagles had to go through the Green Bay Packers, Los Angeles Rams, and the Washington Commanders. Meanwhile, the Chiefs, who earned the number 1 seed and a first round bye; only had to defeat the Houston Texans and Buffalo Bills. Poor Buffalo just can not figure out how to beat the Chiefs in the playoffs. One thing they needed to do two weeks ago was protect Josh Allen better. The Chiefs got consistent pressure on Allen, particularly in those final two drives.
Which leads me to why I think the Eagles will win. The Eagles are a running team and the Chiefs are not very good against the run. The Chiefs have given up 148 yards per game in these playoffs. 164 yards per game if you include the last two games of the regular season. They weren’t always bad. In the first 9 games of the season, the Chiefs gave up more than 100 yards just twice. To the Ravens in week one (I’m pretty sure that the Ravens did that to everyone) and to the ‘9ers. The Bucs did get 95 yards in week 9 but, it’s not 100.
In the final 8 games though, they gave up 100 yards or more rushing in 5 of those. 202 to Pittsburgh in week 17 and then 158 to Denver the final week. To be fair though, the Chiefs had the number 1 seed sowed up and rested all of their starters in week 18. They were so good at the beginning of the year in rushing defense that they were 8th in the NFL in that category. If you were wondering, the Eagles were 10th against the run.
The Chiefs still find ways to win though. It’s clear that they were not a dominating team this year. Not counting the final week in which they rested their starters, they lost only one game. Which was to their regular season kryptonite the Buffalo Bills.
The Chiefs struggled the final month of the season against the run and that’s where the Eagles will feast. Philly was 2nd in the league in rushing offense with 3,048 yards. Behind only, surprise surprise, the Ravens. Saquan Barkley had the 8th most rushing yards in a season with 2,005 yards. And let’s not forget that Jalen Hurts is a good runner as well.
Let’s get into the passing for a second. The Chiefs were middle of the road against the pass ranked 16th. The Eagles were second. That is not good news for Mahomes. The last couple of years have been more of a struggle for Mahomes than normal. This was the first year in his career in which he failed to throw for over 4000 yards. But Mahomes still manages to get it done when it counts. There is a reason why the Chiefs were 17-1 in games that Mahomes started including the playoffs. The man is one of the best in the game at making something happen when things break down.
But I think that Philly has the advantage there. They can get pressure on Mahomes and that is a key to beating him. The Eagles will have to stop the run also. The Chiefs are not all that good in the running game as they ranked 22nd. Can’t underestimate the ability of Mahomes to run the ball though.
For the Eagles to win, they need to run the ball and control the clock. The more they keep Mahomes and that offense off of the field, the better. Spags won’t be able to dial up the same blitzes that they used to beat Josh Allen. And I’m not sure that they will be able to stop the Eagles running game.
Final Prediction: Eagles 27 Chiefs 17