march madness thoughts
It’s bracket season!! Which means millions of people from around the globe will be filling out a March Madness bracket with a chance to win money or clout.
| Final Four Appearences By Seed |
|---|
| Seed | Appearences |
|---|---|
| 1 | 46 |
| 2 | 24 |
| 3 | 13 |
| 4 | 12 |
| 5 | 9 |
| 6 | 0 |
| 7 | 3 |
| 8 | 5 |
| 9 | 2 |
| 10 | 1 |
| 11 | 5 |
| 12 | 0 |
| 13 | 0 |
| 14 | 0 |
| 15 | 0 |
| 16 | 0 |
The above table is for the last 30 years of NCAA Tournaments from 1994-2024. Out of 120 possible final four teams, 46 of them were one seeds. 38.3% of the time a number one seed was in the final four. 21 of those 46 became a Champion. 21 number one seeded teams in a 30 year span. Seven of the last nine champions have been number one seeds. And if you ever look at the brackets and wonder how it’s possible for every number one seed to not make the final four…consider that there has only been one year ever in which that feat was accomplished. 2008 when Memphis, UCLA and North Carolina joined NCAA Champion Kansas as the four number one seeds to make the final four.
And if you’re like me and you think that the final four has to be occupied by number one or number two seeds each year, you’d be wrong. Outside of 2008 when you had all number one seeds, there has only been one time in the last 30 to feature number one or number two seeds; 2007. And it’s only happened one time before the last thirty years, which was 1993; 31 final fours ago.
The lowest seed in the last thirty years to win a championship were the 2014 UConn Huskies as the 7th seed. Overall, the lowest seed to win a championship was in 1985 when Villanova did it.
I found it interesting that there has not been a single sixth seed to get to the final four. Meanwhile, there have been 5 each of the eleven seed and eight seed. Sorry to the six seeds BYU, Ole Miss, Illinois and Missouri. I mean, it does make sense right? Because for the eleven seed to advance passed the first round, they have to beat the six seed.
I’ll talk about my favorites in a later paragraph. I want to get my non-faves out of the way first. Auburn is quite possibly the worst number one seed I’ve seen in a minute. They had a horrendous final few games of the season. They will not lose the 1 versus 16 match-up. But they are absolutely vulnerable to the winner of the 8/9 game between Louisville and Creighton. I would not be surprised to see Auburn lose in the round of 32.
Tennessee is another team that I just do not have high hopes for. I don’t think that they will lose to Wofford. But the current spread is Wofford +18 and I am very tempted to take that action. Tennessee could actually make a run in the Midwest only because the other teams just aren’t that good. They make it passed Wofford more than likely. Then they would face the UCLA versus Utah State winner. I really like the potential for a deep run by whomever will be the 11 seed between Texas and Xavier. Who ever wins that game will probably beat Illinois. Then face a fairly weak Kentucky team. I would say that it’s likely going to be Xavier versus Tennessee in the bottom half of the bracket and I do not like Tennessee’s chances.
I’m very high on the other three number one seeds though. Duke, Florida and Houston are all serious threats to take it home. Duke, even without Cooper Flagg, is just on another level at this moment. All three of these teams will be a tough out but Duke in particular.
Very high on second seed St. Johns. As I’m sure so many others are as well. The potential for a Florida/St. Johns elite eight match-up is chef’s kiss.
I can’t help but wonder if Michigan State is for real or not. They have good wins but what sticks out more are the two losses that they have to USC and oof, Indiana.
I will do my bracket Wednesday night. I like to see who wins the first four games before doing my final predictions. I can say that my likely champion is Duke. This is one of those years when I think that it’s best to not try and outsmart yourself and just take the best team. Honestly, doing the above exercise helped me see the actuality of the tournament. Too many times I thought that the top two seeds were almost a shoe-in for the final four. I see now that there is more variety than you sometimes think.